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X2 Project
THE X2 PROJECT
The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is pleased to announce the launch of a groundbreaking research initiative, the IFTF X2 Project. Named in honor of the "X Club," a forward-looking group of 19th century scientists who promoted innovation in British science, X2 will identify major trends and disruptions in science, technology, and the practice of science over the next twenty years and their impacts on the larger society.
X2 will utilize an open-source web platform that will help individuals and organizations track and analyze global trends in science and technology. The project will employ bottom-up forecasting methods, making use of the collective intelligence of people with different backgrounds, domains of expertise, and geographic locations to synthesize larger patterns and trends. X2 will build on a 50-year scan of science and technology (www.deltascan.org) conducted by IFTF for the U.K. Office of Science and Innovation. X2 beta launched in November 2007.
www.scienceX2.org
Time on After Shock
From Time:
[S]tarting at 10:02 a.m. on Thursday, you can play a sprawling, multiplayer collaboration game called After Shock to see what happens on the other side.
Ophelia Chong on After Shock
Los Angeles-based writer and designer Ophelia Chong (one of a handful of people who've made me think more positively about Southern California) writes about After Shock in her 404 City blog.
Lurching Towards Open Science
Openness is rocking the scientific world. Accept it or proceed at your own risk. As an article last week in Nature points out: scientists are posting unprecedented amounts of experimental data online in “open notebooks”.
But wait.
Science in academia is becoming more closed, driven by regulatory shifts in how funding is tied to ownership of research products. As the New York Times reports:
Timo Hannay on Web 2.0 and science
At a recent conference on Science in the 21st Century, I was lucky to hear Nature.com's publishing director Timo Hannay talk about Web 2.0 and the future of science. He recently gave a talk at the British Library with the provocative title "Scientific Researchers and Web 2.0: Social Not Working?" The whole piece is worth reading-- it's a good overview of Web 2.0 tools and their uses in science right now-- but he concludes on a somewhat pessimistic note:
I'm optimistic about the potential of the web to greatly improve the productivity – and joy – of doing science. I also think it can help to break down barriers between disciplines, and between science and the rest of society. That's why I've devoted my recent professional life to the pursuit of turning this into a reality.
But I'm less optimistic about the inevitability of this potential being fully realised, at least in anything less than a generational timescale. For every scientist who sees it as self-evident that they should be using these tools, or promoting open information-sharing, there are dozens who just don't see the point. For every publisher or librarian who 'gets it' there are many who don't – at least not fully and not yet.
Changing behaviours and expectations is difficult at the of best times – it is too easy to overlook the hundreds of companies that fail for every one, like Facebook or Google, that changes the landscape. In a conservative establishment like science, it's harder still. In some ways science – as an continual, collaborative, global endeavour – is the ultimate wiki. But this analogy misleads people into assuming that adoption of new tools and approaches by scientists is a foregone conclusion. It's not.
INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE Announces First Massively Multiplayer Forecasting Platform
Palo Alto, CA - (Sept 22, 2008) — The Institute for the Future (IFTF) has launched a new research platform composed of Massively Multiplayer Forecasting Games (MMFGs). Designed to address real world problems by harnessing the wisdom of crowds, IFTF’s MMFG platform invites diverse groups to contribute to futures research through games.
Using your hands
Gregg Zachary in last week's New York Times wrote a terrific little piece on "a little-noticed movement in the world of professional design and engineering: a renewed appreciation for manual labor, or innovating with the aid of human hands." I talk about it at some length on my End of Cyberspace blog.
Energy grid limitation on the growth of alternative energy
The New York Times recently had an article on how the U.S. electric grid is turning out to hinder the development of wind power:
When the builders of the Maple Ridge Wind farm spent $320 million to put nearly 200 wind turbines in upstate New York, the idea was to get paid for producing electricity. But at times, regional electric lines have been so congested that Maple Ridge has been forced to shut down even with a brisk wind blowing.
That is a symptom of a broad national problem. Expansive dreams about renewable energy, like Al Gore’s hope of replacing all fossil fuels in a decade, are bumping up against the reality of a power grid that cannot handle the new demands.
The dirty secret of clean energy is that while generating it is getting easier, moving it to market is not.
Open Bioscience: Where Will the Distributed Scientists Go to Work?
IFTF researcher David Pescovitz shared an article from Nature News today that covers the proliferation of crowdsourced biodata sharing. Recent months have seen a flurry of launches of open, loosely structured repositories of complex biochemical pathways like WikiPathways, Protein Data Bank Wiki and WikiGene.
Innovation in Africa: "Inside Nairobi, the Next Palo Alto?"
Interesting article describing the innovation capacity of Africa. Mobile devices may be the vehicle by which the African continent can flex it's innovation muscle. More than home electronics/computers/cars, mobile devices are in the hands of many people in the African continent and they are teaching the Western world how to innovate with these devices.
Article from NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/20/business/worldbusiness/20ping.html?ex=...
Chinese universities now top the NSF list of institutions sending students to American graduate schools
For decades, American graduate schools have attracted students from all over the world. Over time, of course, the origins of international graduate students has shifted. For years, the NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates has been following where Ph.D. recipients received their undergraduate degrees, and each year it publishes a list showing what universities and colleges graduate the largest number of students going on to get Ph.D.s in the U.S.
The latest survey shows that in 2006, two Chinese universities contributed more Ph.D. students to American graduate programs. This is notable because until now, American universities have dominated (but not monopolized) the top five slots.
Seeing the future in stock photoraphy
An article in today's Slate looks at how stock photography houses commission photographers to shoot scenes that advertisers are going to want in the future. Essentially, "suppliers of the world's commercial imagery are making bets on what life will look and feel like in the near future."
Getty gave me lists of the most popular search terms on their database for 2006, 2007, and the first half of 2008. Only three entries showed up in the top 10 on all three lists: business, people, and woman. (Woman climbed from eighth to fifth to first, which Waggoner attributes to the increasing global presence of women in the workplace and thus the increasing global demand for photos and video depicting women in the workplace.)
Other terms fade in and out. Soccer makes a single top-10 appearance in 2006—a World Cup year. (Getty will refresh its soccer content as the 2010 World Cup approaches in the expectation that soccer will be ascendant.) In a development that may be of no surprise to you, Christmas has been showing up earlier and earlier. "It hit the top 10 in June last year," says Waggoner. "We usually don't plan for it until August."...
Beyond the numbers, sometimes the composition of images can tell a story. "We saw a big shift after 9/11," says Waggoner. "Family entered the top 10 in search keywords and in revenue-generating subject matter for us, but there was also a change in how families were shown. Whereas before it had generally been everybody in a row, now a child was often moved to the foreground of the photo with the parents' attention focused on him. And there was a lot more black and white being used, suggesting a sense of nostalgia." In the last couple of years, the trend has shifted back toward photos of lone people looking into the camera. Waggoner surmises that this is "testimonial" imagery, playing on the appeal of real people as authentic-seeming message-bearers.
One can't make too much of this-- stock photography is as subject to the whims of fashion as any field-- but as an indicator of popular mood, it's interesting.
New report on the U.S. innovation system
The Institute does quite a bit of work these days on the future of innovation and innovation systems. So I was interested to see a report by the Information Technology and Innovation Forum (ITIF) on the U.S. innovation system. (It also caught my eye because long ago I took a sociology of work class with one of the report's authors.) From the press release:
Cease-and-desist letter sent to California-based personalized genetics startups
California likes to think of itself as a high-tech friendly place, and generally it is. However, Alexis Madrigal reports that the state government has decided to go after personal genetics companies:
Last Monday, the state's laboratory field services group issued 13 cease-and-desist letters to genetic testing companies. Wired.com obtained a copy of the letters (pdf.) from two recipients. And the tough talk in a recent teleconference among regulatory officials confirms the seriousness of the department's intent.
"We [are] no longer tolerating direct-to-consumer genetic testing in California," Karen Nickles, Chief of Laboratory Field Services at the health department, told members of the Clinical Laboratories Advisory Committee on June 13.
Targeted companies include personal genomics startups 23andMe and Navigenics. These services are seen as the leading edge of a new type of health care in which consumers can use their genetic profile to tailor their medical and lifestyle choices. The established medical community, however, is wary of the technology arguing that the medical utility of some tests is unproven. Doctors also complain that direct-to-consumer services bypass them as the gatekeepers and analysts of medical information, which they worry could confuse consumers, not to mention cost them a billing event.
The health department's actions are a direct challenge to the viability of the infant DNA-testing industry, for which physician involvement is shaping up to be a major battleground. As far back as a September 2006 meeting, health department officials were voicing concerns over "nutrigenetic tests that analyze a limited number of genes to give personalized nutritional and lifestyle recommendations."
(via Virginia Postrel's Dynamist Blog)
Pentagon moving into social science
The New York Times reports on a new Pentagon program to make more systematic use of social scientists.
Eager to embrace eggheads and ideas, the Pentagon has started an ambitious and unusual program to recruit social scientists and direct the nation’s brainpower to combating security threats like the Chinese military, Iraq, terrorism and religious fundamentalism.
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has compared the initiative — named Minerva, after the Roman goddess of wisdom (and warriors) — to the government’s effort to pump up its intellectual capital during the cold war after the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957.
Although the Pentagon regularly finances science and engineering research, systematic support for the social sciences and humanities has been rare. Minerva is the first systematic effort in this area since the Vietnam War, said Thomas G. Mahnken, deputy assistant secretary of defense for policy planning, whose office will be overseeing the project.
But if the uncustomary push to engage the nation’s evolutionary psychologists, demographers, sociologists, historians and anthropologists in security research — as well as the prospect of new financial support in lean times — has generated excitement among some scholars, it has also aroused opposition from others, who worry that the Defense Department and the academy are getting too cozy.
$50 million will be routed through the National Science Foundation, in an effort to make the program feel more familiar-- to reduce anxiety among researchers about working with the military, and increase the scholarly rigor.
iPhone and citizen science
Alexis Madrigal throws a link to the X2 Project in his post on the addition of GPS in the iPhone:
With Steve Jobs' announcement that the iPhone 3G will have geolocation built-in, plenty of people are excited about finding good restaurants near them or worried about the privacy implications....