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Technology Horizons
The Technology Horizons Program combines a deep understanding of technology and societal forces to identify and evaluate discontinuities and innovations in the next 3 to 10 years. We help organizations develop insights and strategic tools to better position themselves for the future. Our approach to technology forecasting is unique—we put people at the center of our forecasts. Understanding humans as consumers, workers, householders, and community members allows IFTF to help companies look beyond technical feasibility to identify the value in new technologies, forecast adoption and diffusion patterns, and discover new market opportunities and threats.

Marina Gorbis | Director, Technology Horizons Program
For more information on membership in the Technology Horizons Program, please contact Sean Ness at sness@iftf.org or 650-233-9517.
Capsule Review of Clay Shirky's "Here Comes Everybody"
Oh, the irony.
I've been trying to read Clay Shirky's new book on social software and online groups, "Here Comes Everybody" for about the last 3 months. However, everytime I crack it open and start digging into this very thoughtful and fast-paced critique of the group economy, I am interrupted by some incoming email or IMs (the original Gen X-er social networks), tweets, or the recollection of some unfinished Wikipedia edit or blog entry.
Cease-and-desist letter sent to California-based personalized genetics startups
California likes to think of itself as a high-tech friendly place, and generally it is. However, Alexis Madrigal reports that the state government has decided to go after personal genetics companies:
Last Monday, the state's laboratory field services group issued 13 cease-and-desist letters to genetic testing companies. Wired.com obtained a copy of the letters (pdf.) from two recipients. And the tough talk in a recent teleconference among regulatory officials confirms the seriousness of the department's intent.
"We [are] no longer tolerating direct-to-consumer genetic testing in California," Karen Nickles, Chief of Laboratory Field Services at the health department, told members of the Clinical Laboratories Advisory Committee on June 13.
Targeted companies include personal genomics startups 23andMe and Navigenics. These services are seen as the leading edge of a new type of health care in which consumers can use their genetic profile to tailor their medical and lifestyle choices. The established medical community, however, is wary of the technology arguing that the medical utility of some tests is unproven. Doctors also complain that direct-to-consumer services bypass them as the gatekeepers and analysts of medical information, which they worry could confuse consumers, not to mention cost them a billing event.
The health department's actions are a direct challenge to the viability of the infant DNA-testing industry, for which physician involvement is shaping up to be a major battleground. As far back as a September 2006 meeting, health department officials were voicing concerns over "nutrigenetic tests that analyze a limited number of genes to give personalized nutritional and lifestyle recommendations."
(via Virginia Postrel's Dynamist Blog)
Pentagon moving into social science
The New York Times reports on a new Pentagon program to make more systematic use of social scientists.
Eager to embrace eggheads and ideas, the Pentagon has started an ambitious and unusual program to recruit social scientists and direct the nation’s brainpower to combating security threats like the Chinese military, Iraq, terrorism and religious fundamentalism.
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has compared the initiative — named Minerva, after the Roman goddess of wisdom (and warriors) — to the government’s effort to pump up its intellectual capital during the cold war after the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957.
Although the Pentagon regularly finances science and engineering research, systematic support for the social sciences and humanities has been rare. Minerva is the first systematic effort in this area since the Vietnam War, said Thomas G. Mahnken, deputy assistant secretary of defense for policy planning, whose office will be overseeing the project.
But if the uncustomary push to engage the nation’s evolutionary psychologists, demographers, sociologists, historians and anthropologists in security research — as well as the prospect of new financial support in lean times — has generated excitement among some scholars, it has also aroused opposition from others, who worry that the Defense Department and the academy are getting too cozy.
$50 million will be routed through the National Science Foundation, in an effort to make the program feel more familiar-- to reduce anxiety among researchers about working with the military, and increase the scholarly rigor.
Kid Rock: iTunes rips off artists
The BBC reports that Kid Rock believes iTunes doesn't pay enough to the artists, and has resisted offering his tracks through the service. (However, note that later in the article it says his latest single is available through iTunes in the UK.)
The most interesting part of this whole issue is Kid Rock's comments on filesharing:
IFTF 2004 Forecast demo now an iPhone application
It was bound to happen: Colleen Morgan, an archeologist from the University of California, Berkeley working at the historic San Francisco Presidio, has created an almost perfectly similar mobile mapping application for an iPhone as a nearly identical demo application that Chris Goad created, and Jason Tester populated with both real and fanciful geodata for the IFTF Technology Horizons New Geographies conference in 2004 also at the San Francisco Presidio!!
iPhone and citizen science
Alexis Madrigal throws a link to the X2 Project in his post on the addition of GPS in the iPhone:
With Steve Jobs' announcement that the iPhone 3G will have geolocation built-in, plenty of people are excited about finding good restaurants near them or worried about the privacy implications....

Make the Future! 30 Second Forecasts & Flickr
At our Make the Future! booth at Maker Faire in May, we asked Fairegoers who swung by our booth to record 30 second of their future forecasts. We got some great responses, all of which can be viewed on our Flickr photostream.
Tracking Mobile Swarms to Change the Way We See Cities
Last fall, I reported on Alberto Barabasi's research using mobile phones to track large-scale human mobility patterns after seeing him give a paper on the topic in Budapest. That paper has now been published in Nature, and there is a public summary in Nature News.
Get Ready for the Carbon Neutral Factories
MAS Holdings claims to have built the world's first carbon-neutral garment factory in Sri Lanka. The plant will make underwear for Marks & Spencer in the UK (they also make sexy lingerie for US-based Victoria's Secret).
While the plant cost 25% more to build than a traditional design (it would have been 15% without some frills due to being a showcase), with rising fuel prices it's expected to pay for the difference in less than five years.
Get ready for the carbon-neutral plants to pop up faster than garment factories after a Pearl River Delta rain.
"Walking" in Second Life
A Japanese team of researchers, led by Keio University biosciences and informatics professor Junichi Ushiba, has created a system that allows a paralyzed man to "walk" in Second Life.
Wired reports,
Researchers at Japan's Keio University have created an experimental headset designed to monitor brain waves that allowed a man who had been paralyzed for more than 30 years to control a Second Life avatar using only his thoughts.
Guerilla Media Wars
In 2006, we published a Ten Year Forecast perspective called "Dark Mobs". Among other things, that piece argued that repeated top-down efforts to squelch file sharing actually created powerful incentives that drove the technology towards more distributed, secure architecture. The media giants, by killing Napster and Gnutella created the need for something as difficult to control as BitTorrent.
Lightweight R&D Infrastructure
Interesting article by Malcolm Gladwell in the New Yorker about Nathan Myhrvold, former CTO of Microsoft, and his company called Intellectual Ventures http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/05/12/080512fa_fact_gladwell/?cu.... First, having just spent a few days working with Nathan, I found the following description of him hilarious:
OCED on Innovation in China
OCED Observer is running a good piece this month assessing the state of innovation in China:
The Future of Libraries as Places
Being the only IFTF staffer based in New York City, I've been taking a "maker" approach to office space. Why carry thousands of dollars per month overhead in this overheated real estate market, when there are any number of wireless parks and coffee shops to set up shop at?


