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Ten-Year Forecast
The Ten-Year Forecast Program provides a distinctive outlook on the changing global environment for a vanguard of players in business, government, and nonprofit organizations. Focusing on the next three to ten years, the program anticipates discontinuities and emerging dilemmas--discontinuities because they challenge business as usual and dilemmas because they demand new ways of thinking about complex problems. Together, discontinuities and dilemmas provide a vista of new practices and points of view that will shape tomorrow's organizations and today's choices.

Kathi Vian | Director, Ten-Year Forecast Program
For more information on membership in the Ten-Year Forecast Program, please contact Sean Ness at sness@iftf.org or 650-233-9517.

Leaders Make the Future: Ten New Leadership Skills in an Uncertain World
IFTF is pleased to announce the release of Leaders Make the Future:
Ten New Leadership Skills for an Uncertain World by Bob Johansen, Distinguished Fellow, on May 11, 2009.
Neo-neo Colonialism?
Some of my colleagues and I have been doing some research on the growing, or perhaps dying trend, of land grabbing to secure future food sources. I recently found a great resource for anyone interested in following this disturbing trend.
Microsoft and Ghana Ministry of Education sign a Memorandum of Understanding
Microsoft is investing in building ICT capabilities in Ghana. The MoU is an extension of the 2004 relationship between Microsoft and Ghana in which three IT academies were established and 300 teachers within all levels of education were trained.
Kenyan Undersea Fiber Optic Cable Launched
“The long-awaited East African Marine System (TEAMS) fibre optic
undersea cable, expected to cut telecommunications costs across the
continent has officially been launched in Kenya.”
On conversation and extremism
It's conventional wisdom that groups generate ideas and plans more moderate than those of individuals. Groups and discussion encourage compromise, smooth out extremes, and guarantee moderation. It is also one of the unspoken assumptions of facilitation and group-oriented scenario work. Facilitation and scenario-building, the thinking goes, builds a sense of collective spirit by helping groups develop a shared vision of the future.
Motorcycle Ambulances in Sudan
The Ministry of Health in south Sudan has released 5 motorcycles complete with sidecar and padded bed to act as ambulances for pregnant women. The motorcycles were donated by UNICEF for about $6,000 a piece.
Medical Tourism in Tunisia
Medical tourism in Tunisia has become the countries second highest foreign currency earner, and the second largest employer. Many medical tourists come to Tunisia for specialized surgical procedures in cardiology, gynecology, or urology. Or they come because of Tunisia’s reputation for good cosmetic surgeons.
Chadians look to past traditions to survive present food crisis, and I am reminded of some Superstruct stories
In IFTF’s first ever massively multiplayer forecasting game Superstruct (www.superstructgame.net)
players spent a lot of time and energy trying to solve 5 superthreats. One of them, Ravenous, focused on a hypothetical global food crisis. How do we restructure our eating habits and global food networks? Ideas ranged from rooftop gardens to virtual spaces that allowed people from around the world to connect over best practices and try out new methods, to seed ATMS and the idea that food is a right, not a luxury, and should be free. Someone even created a superstruct involving insects as our primary source of protein, insects4food. The superstruct won an award for thinking outside of the box, but not for practicality. Most of us think eating insects as out primary source of protein is taking it too far, but for others, it might not be that bad.
Communities: Citizens of Sustainability
For years, advocates of sustainable corporate practices have focused on green marketing. They have documented a growing segment of consumers with so-called green values and have created high-value products that appeal to these consumers. This strategy has catapulted Whole Foods into a leadership role in retail food and has perhaps inspired Wal-Mart to follow suit.
Tinkering and the future
My latest article, on the nature and future of tinkering, appears today in issue 22 of Vodafone Receiver:
Almost forty years ago, the Whole Earth Catalog published its last issue. For the American counterculture, it was like the closing of a really great café: the Catalog had brought together the voices of contributors, readers and editors, all unified by a kind of tech-savvy, hands-on, thoughtful optimism. Don't reject technology, the Catalog urged: make it your own. Don't drop out of the world: change it, using the tools we and your fellow readers have found. Some technologies were environmentally destructive or made you stupid, others were empowering and trod softly on the earth; together we could learn which were which.
Millions found the Catalog's message inspirational. In promoting an attitude toward technology that emphasized experimentation, re-use and re-invention, seeing the deeper consequences of your choices, appreciating the power of learning to do it yourself and sharing your ideas, the Whole Earth Catalog helped create the modern tinkering movement. Today, tinkering is growing in importance as a social movement, as a way of relating to technology and as a source of innovation. Tinkering is about seizing the moment: it is about ad-hoc learning, getting things done, innovation and novelty, all in a highly social, networked environment.
What is interesting is that at its best, tinkering has an almost Zen-like sense of the present: its 'now' is timeless. It is neither heedless of the past or future, nor is it in headlong pursuit of immediate gratification. Tinkering offers a way of engaging with today's needs while also keeping an eye on the future consequences of our choices. And the same technological and social trends that have made tinkering appealing seem poised to make it even more pervasive and powerful in the future. Today we tinker with things; tomorrow, we will tinker with the world.
The future of aid and Africa
It isn’t long since Dambisa Moyo had her book Dead Aid published. For the most part, people without experience in either development work or Africa thought she was being too extreme and taking her stance (all large multilateral aid to Africa should stop within 5 years) as a way to get attention and become famous. While I understand this reaction, I find it both sad and insulting as it undermines anything Moyo states as being simply sensational.
Asia: Chinese Consumer Collectives
The emergence of the Chinese middle-class is changing the world. The next ten years will see the growing impact of a distinctly Chinese form of Consumer culture—new kinds of urban buying collectives, rooted in China’s socialist legacy and enabled by communications technologies. Serving there new consumer collectives will require distinctly new strategies in product development, marketing, the retail experience, and customer service.
Culture: Digital Natives, Civil Spaces
A new youth media literacy is emerging. As the authors of cultural products, today’s young people are driving a rapid expansion of participative media—as well as a shift in the authority of authors. While this new literacy demands more personal skills in both producing media and evaluating them critically, it is also enabling more collaborative and commons-based forms of civic engagement.
Politics: Participatory Panopticon
Participatory panopticon is a world in which we record our lives as well as the lives of those around us. Where everything is potentially on the record, often from multiple perspectives; not only is privacy a thing of the past but potentially secrecy as well. Such a world isn’t necessarily intentional; instead, it’s the emergent result of individually reasonable technological and social choices, choices we have made, and are continuing to make today.

